George W. Evans

PLC 441; 541-346-4662; gevans@uoregon.edu

Biographical Information

George W. Evans, Professor and John B. Hamacher Chair in Economics, received a B.A. in Mathematics in 1974, an M.A. in Statistics in 1976, and a Ph.D. in Economics in 1980 from the University of California at Berkeley and a second bachelor's degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University in England. He joined the UO faculty in 1994. To visit George's home page, click here.

Research Interests

George Evans has investigated a wide range of theoretical and empirical topics in macroeconomics including tests for speculative bubbles, the effect of sectoral imbalance on unemployment, the decomposition of aggregate output into trend and cycle, and the formulation of theoretical models of endogenous fluctuations. In his work on "rational bubbles" he has examined the statistical evidence for the presence of bubbles in foreign exchange rates and in stock prices. His work on business cycles shows how to extract the cyclical component of GNP using multivariate forecasting models. Professor Evans is best known for his research on expectational stability and learning in stochastic, dynamic models with multiple rational expectations equilibria. In these models, economic agents are assumed to have bounded rationality in making forecasts -- e.g. to use simple or sophisticated extrapolative rules. Because agents learn and adapt to forecast errors, they may, in the long run, approximate full rationality. The techniques are used, in particular, to determine when the economy can become trapped into cycles, "sunspot equilibria" or hyperinflationary paths, and how macroeconomic policy can steer the economy away from these inefficient outcomes.

Teaching

Professor Evans teaches core macroeconomic theory and advanced macroeconomics at the graduate level. At the undergraduate level he teaches intermediate macroeconomics. He also enjoys teaching econometrics and time series analysis.